Petroleum Science >2018,??Issue 4:??912-924 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-018-0269-3
Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method Open?Access
文章信息
作者：Xian-Zhong Mu, Guo-Hao Li and Guang-Wen Hu
作者單位：
Institute of Recycling Economy, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China,Institute of Recycling Economy, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China and Institute of Recycling Economy, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
投稿時(shí)間：2017-09-08
引用方式：Mu, XZ., Li, GH. & Hu, GW. Pet. Sci. (2018) 15: 912. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-018-0269-3
文章摘要
Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.
關(guān)鍵詞
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Natural gas demand system, System dynamics, Scenario prediction, Consumption structure